SHTF more likely than I thought
 

The SHTF scenario is more plausible as time goes forward and is the natural development in Warfare.

I was Talking with a young Muslim from Bosnia Friday and we talked about his dissertation he would be writing in the future. It revolves around stages of warfare. As I sketched it out with him I think its OK to talk about in broad strokes without interfering with his thesis.

Stage 1--Raiding--we go get their stuff and bring it back and party

Stage 2--Acquiring--we go take their stuff and their land

Stage 3--Proxy War-- China and US fighting in Vietnam

Stage 4--Internal--We go fight in their land and they fight in ours. (terrorist and US response)

We broke off here as Stage 4 is his interest. Looking ahead to Stage 5

Stage 5--Not Known but my guess--Internal and Proxy --I think it would play out as terrorist attacks and conventional attacks. Based on the way US forces are training infiltration forces as well as Big Bomb equipping --we may see both. Proxy as its been used for Ideological wars.

Stage 5 is SHTF local infiltration and Missiles. Attacks from within and from outside--No way to know but its seems likely based on Stage 2 being out dated since most countries can produce. Stage 1 is unlikely as there would be retaliation.

So we already have met and entered a Stage four I would see stage 5 for the next big conflict.


So thats my interesting thought of the day.

E-A